COP 30: Ambitious Goals, Slow Progress

Written by: Kéa Anderson

Edited by: Sunny Bell

The 30th annual Conference of the Parties (COP) was held in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025. Much of the focus was on international engagement with each country’s respective climate action plans and the 1.5°C global warming targets established in the Paris Agreement ten years prior. Leaders of this climate summit framed the event as "the COP of implementation and adaptation," referring to the ambitions to develop structures for a just transition and a phase-out of fossil fuels (Glasser & Peck, 2025).

Expectations were high for this year’s summit, with the COP30 President-designate, Corrêa do Lago, highlighting several priority issues before the conference's commencement. The headlining concerns include the “[translation of] words into transformative action” to create a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels and implement Paris Agreement targets, the strengthening of global governance, international cooperation, and incorporation of Indigenous knowledge into climate change adaptation strategies, as well as, importantly, the establishment of a just transition framework to ensure support for those dependent upon fossil fuels as this phase-out gets underway (International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2025b).

Concurrent with these policy goals are a multitude of challenges to developing an international consensus moving forward. Lack of participation from prominent greenhouse gas-emitting countries emerged as a primary roadblock to promoting collective action initiatives.

Chief among the contentious issues discussed was the pledge made at COP28 in Dubai for countries to begin phasing out coal, oil, and gas – a necessary step toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions (Friedman et al., 2025). This promise, made without any associated required action plans, subsequently saw no decisive changes in these countries’ behaviors. This year’s COP30 sought to develop clear steps to achieve these goals. However, initiating a phase-out of this nature is a hurdle for many industrial countries reliant on fossil fuels for economic growth and stability, and is, in many cases, a non-starter for developing countries. The financial backing necessary to instigate a transition away from fossil fuels is significant, and the requisite investments in renewable energy infrastructure for developing countries and economies are largely unfeasible.

A typical just transition plan calls upon wealthier industrialized nations to provide aid to developing countries adapting to this transition – an equitable expectation given that their historical contributions to carbon emissions account for a majority of the greenhouse gases accumulating in our atmosphere. Though this system is functional in principle, an inherently anarchic international community distinctly lacks enforcement mechanisms to ensure that these plans are carried out. In light of these challenges, civil society groups advocating at COP30 for enhanced international cooperation, knowledge-sharing, and capacity-building were successful, with leaders creating a transition mechanism to make the previously established Just Transition Work Programme “more actionable” (International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2025a). Understandably, this vague promise is of little assurance to those who are dependent on a true just transition in order to maintain their livelihoods without fossil fuels.

At the conference, Corrêa do Lago expressed the clear need for the integration of climate, biodiversity, and sustainable development agendas to be cultivated by “multilateral institutions”, consistent with his vision and Brazil’s hope for strong international cooperation in solving climate challenges (International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2025b). An unexpected omission from the COP30 summit threatened to throw a wrench in this plan when the Trump administration opted out of sending high-level representatives to Belém (Glasser & Peck, 2025). For the first time since the inauguration of the Conference of the Parties, the United States was not an active participant. This posed several issues, particularly in the progression of compliance plans for the established Paris Agreement climate targets, which the U.S. is once again in the process of withdrawing from, as well as in the establishment of a just transition mechanism. The U.S. is the largest producer of oil, the largest exporter of natural gas, and has the greatest global GDP, making it integral to both the global effort to phase out fossil fuels and to the creation of a just climate change adaptation strategy (Bennhold, 2025). While its absence was for many a disappointment, others have argued that it “made things easier” due to the United States’ historical lack of climate policy consistency and commitment, and the subsequent diminished intentionality that the U.S. would have brought to the summit (Friedman et al., 2025). Be that as it may, the absence of U.S. support for and involvement in COP30 initiatives compromises the effectiveness of the adoption of agreements on an international level.

In the vacuum left by the United States, other major global economies were invited to assume a leading role in climate adaptation and renewable energy development. China was expected to be a top contender in filling this position. Though currently the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, China is also a global leader in wind and solar energy, providing solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles that facilitate the renewable electricity transition for smaller, developing countries (Bennhold, 2025). However, despite its involvement in the international community and increased climate efforts, China did not step into a leadership role in the COP30 summit, leaving the U.S. vacuum unfilled. Consequently, the President-delegate’s ambition for increased global cooperation on the Paris Agreement’s climate change targets was not satisfied.

Ultimately, COP30 was successful in creating a plan for global climate action and a just transition mechanism, two crucial tasks facing the international community. Nonetheless, challenges to the system-wide adoption of these initiatives were significant. A “unified BRICS-Arab front” against the phase-out of fossil fuels prevented the more ambitious renewable transition plans from gaining ground (European Parliament, 2025). The importance of coal, oil, and gas to these countries’ economies generates substantial resistance to the idea of a world independent of nonrenewable energy sources. Even so, there was a productive international acknowledgement of the gap between current carbon emissions and the targets set by the Paris Agreement, as well as an acceptance of the need for a pathway to achieve concrete global action, though no plans were specifically established (European Parliament, 2025).

The insufficiency of international agreements on a cohesive climate change action plan triggered disappointment for many with a stake in this summit. The gap between emissions reduction goals and actual reductions remains too large for nations to reasonably expect to stay on target for a maximum global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as set in the Paris Agreement. COP30 made some important movements in addressing the climate crisis, but was unable to adequately take into account the goals introduced prior to the summit, and, critically, lacked the urgency needed to realize current climate objectives.

After a somewhat anticlimactic close to this year’s Conference of the Parties, a new emphasis may now be placed on COP31 to resolve unsettled issues. The climate change clock is ticking, with each passing year posing both new challenges and new solutions for nations to confront. If past events are any indication of future outcomes, serious changes will need to be made to our process of international cooperation in order to make the necessary changes to our global environmental management.

References

Bennhold, K. (2025, November 9). Tackling Climate Change Without the U.S. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/09/world/climate-change-un-philippines-typhoon-bbc.html

European Parliament. (2025, November 23). COP30 outcome: slow progress, but insufficient to meet climate crisis urgency | Actualité | Parlement européen. Europa.eu. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/fr/press-room/20251117IPR31438/cop30-outcome-slow-progress-but-insufficient-to-meet-climate-crisis-urgency

Friedman, L., Plumer, B., & Bearak, M. (2025, November 17). Thousands March for Climate Action as COP30 Talks Enter Second Week. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/climate/cop30-climate-negotiations-belem.html

Glasser, M., & Peck, D. (2025, November 9). What to know about COP30 as the international climate conference gets underway in Brazil. ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/US/cop30-international-climate-conference-gets-underway-brazil/story?id=127256517

International Institute for Sustainable Development. (2025a, November 22). COP 30 Outcome: What it means and what’s next. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/articles/insight/cop-30-outcome-what-it-means-and-whats-next

International Institute for Sustainable Development. (2025b, March 12). Brazil Shares Priorities for COP 30. SDG Knowledge Hub. https://sdg.iisd.org/news/brazil-shares-priorities-for-cop-30/